Raise Issue Could Follow Familiar Path

Employee organizations also have been urging the White House to propose a substantial pay raise, citing the pay rate freeze of 2011-2013 that was followed by raises of 1, 1 and 1.3 (on average) percent over 2014-2016. The figure that is supposed to be used as the starting point under federal pay law, an employment cost index measure, worked out to 2.1 percent for the pertinent measuring period. The law provides for subtracting a half-percentage point, which would yield 1.6, and also paying locality pay on top of that to close indicated local gaps—an add-on that never has been paid in full since the law was enacted 25 years ago. The reduced ECI figure, or a number close to it, often has been used as the recommendation instead. For the last three years, Congress has allowed the White House proposal to take effect by default by remaining silent on a raise. A recommendation for a raise substantially higher than the most recent three could cause Congress to actively take up the issue, with one possible result being a move to reduce or even eliminate the raise.