A Ukrainian servicemen fires from a 152 mm towed gun-howitzer D-20 at the artillery range in the Kyiv region, Oct 2020. Cancian specifically cited 155mm non-precision and precision ammunition. Image: home for heroes/Shutterstock.com
Transferal of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine could lead to shortages of both for the Army. Mark F. Cancian, a national security expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and retired Marine Corps colonel, outlined the issue in a recent white paper.
“Most inventories, though not all, will take many years to replace,” Cancian wrote. “For most items, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition.”
Cancian specifically cited 155mm non-precision and precision ammunition, Javelin long-range portable precision anti-tank missiles, the High Mobility Artillery Rockets System (HIMARS), the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), and the Stinger portable air-defense system.
He is optimistic because the systems he mentioned are not the only ones in the U.S. inventory, and are being shipped to Ukraine in relatively small numbers. Shipments of other munitions, such as small arms ammunition, come from large stockpiles, he added. The lack of accessible data, however, is cause for concern, he said.
“Replacement times for several important systems cannot be calculated because not enough data is publicly available,” Cancian wrote. “Low inventories do not mean the end of equipment transfers. They do mean that the United States will need to pursue other mechanisms.”
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