Estimated savings for the 2005 round of base realignment and closures were significantly overstated, GAO has said in citing opportunities to improve future rounds of cuts.
Lawmakers compete to stave off cuts that would impact their constituents, and savings claims could receive greater scrutiny in future BRAC rounds given the lower than projected savings.
According GAO, the model that DoD uses to compare various closure and realignment scenarios is reasonable, but DoD’s process for providing the BRAC commission with cost and savings estimates was hindered in many cases by underestimating requirements entered into the model.
GAO said for example that construction costs for BRAC 2005 increased from $13.2 billion estimated by the commission in 2005 to $24.5 billion after implementation ended in 2011 – and that much of the 86 percent increase was caused by requirements that were added or identified after implementation began.
Some cost estimates increased because requirements were initially understated or not identified as inputs into the model and the department also did not fully anticipate IT requirements for many recommendations, according to GAO-13-149.