An early marker has been set for the January 2007—not 2006—federal pay raise, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the employment cost index measure used for determining the across-the-board component of that raise was 2.2 percent in the pertinent measuring period. Under federal pay law, a half percentage point is supposed to be shaved off that amount in order to keep employees roughly apace with private sector wage growth, and locality pay is supposed to be paid in addition, in order to close local pay gaps. That system has never been implemented as designed, however. According to the latest government figures, a total raise of 13.37 percent would be needed to bring federal pay in compliance with the law. The Bush administration in its last several budget proposals has recommended federal raises based on consumer price inflation, not private sector wage growth. However, Congress has consistently set the federal raise at the same level as the uniformed military raise, which in recent years has been determined by adding a half-percentage point to the ECI figure. If that practice is followed in next year’s budget cycle, a January 2007 raise of 2.7 percent would be indicated.