National Guard troops stationed outside Union Station, Washington DC August 31, 2025. Image: Andrew Thomas/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Congress has returned from its August recess with less than a month to address key policy and funding decisions ahead of the September 30 end of the current fiscal year, when agency spending authority runs out.
Already warnings are being sounded on the need to pass at least a temporary funding measure to head off a partial government shutdown, and the resulting unpaid furloughs of hundreds of thousands of federal employees.
The most common outcome in these situations is an extension of funding, mostly at current levels, for several months. However, these deadlines commonly are used as leverage on policy issues, often leaving action to the last minute. One such complication this year could be further White House requests for recissions of spending previously approved, following recent passage of a bill to rescind funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting programs.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said a shutdown seems likely, and pointed to an executive order from last week clawing back $4.9B in appropriated foreign aid as a sign of a unilateral approach to funding – claiming Democratic Senate support would be needed. (The so-called – and rare – pocket rescission happens when the White House withholds spending long enough that the money expires, effectively cutting the funding without Congress able to do anything, or needing to. Supporters of the White House move say Congress knew the maneuver was a possibility, while critics, including Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has pushed back. Collins noted that the Government Accountability Office has concluded that the maneuver violates the Impoundment Control Act.)
However, when faced with a similar dilemma of helping Republicans pass a third stop-gap spending bill last March – Schumer mustered enough Democrat support to get it passed. Another stop-gap bill would likely last until the third Friday in December.
Progress on a slate of regular funding bills has been limited to date, meaning a shutdown could be felt extensively. Congress spent the first half of the year negotiating and then ultimately passing a budget reconciliation bill setting long-term tax and spending policies.
The last shutdown to occur lasted 35 days, but was a partial shutdown, Congress having already approved several spending bills. The departments and personnel funded by the passed bills were not affected. None of those full-year bills have been passed, meaning that at this point, every federal department and agency would need to implement a shutdown contingency plan in the event of a funding lapse. Essential personnel who are exempt would be forced to work in unpaid status, while others would be furloughed, also without pay. Both categories of personnel by law must eventually be paid, however – albeit with no recourse in the meantime.
Meanwhile the White House has not issued—and apparently will not—the type of detailed proposal that typically acts as the starting point for the appropriations process. Additionally, the House has passed just three funding bills – all along party lines with GOP support. All but two have passed the committee level there, however. Meanwhile, the Senate has passed its version of the Agriculture, Legislative Branch and Military Construction-VA bills.
The House Appropriations Committee was set to markup the general government spending bill on Wednesday, which sets general federal workplace policies on pay and benefits issues. As expected that general funding bill does not provide for a January 2026 federal employee pay raise. President Trump last week called for a 1 percent raise, with an exception for some LEOs, and also with no locality component for 2026 in his alternative pay plan letter. Congress could still override that amount by setting a different level in the general government spending bill, as it had done twice in Trump’s first term.
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See also,
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