The Air Force would have to spend $15 billion in the 2020s, $23 billion in the 2030s, and $15 billion in the 2040s to replace aging aircraft, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The prospect of having to do so is real, CBO states in a report released this month. The service’s variants of F-15 and F-16 fighters, C-130 cargo planes and B-1B bombers all are nearing the end of their service lives, the report stated.
CBO based its estimates on the Air Force’s procurement plans for some aircraft, and the projected retirement ages of aircraft with no such procurement plans. Factors such as development costs, operations and maintenance, modifications and personnel were not considered.
The Air Force could lower replacement costs by deciding to extend the service life of some planes, or procuring others at costs lower than CBO estimates, according to the report.
“The Air Force could smooth its procurement appropriations by accelerating the purchase of one or more types of aircraft. Or it could replace retiring aircraft with fewer modern aircraft and evolve to a smaller overall fleet,” the report suggested, noting that the service has used this approach for sometime now.
The service also could choose to replace the planes it retires with a combination of new and old aircraft, the report stated. Such an approach, however, could be costly because the service would have to keep maintenance staffs and operations in place for both modern and legacy aircraft that would still be usable.
