GAO has said the Census Bureau’s estimate of the life cycle cost of the 2010 Census, which is from $13.7 billion to $14.5 billion, is unreliable, lacks adequate documentation and is not comprehensive, accurate, or credible.
In April, after scrapping a costly project to develop handheld computers, the Bureau announced a redesign of the 2010 Census plan that included significant cost increases of $2.2 billion to $3 billion.
However, the Bureau has not provided detailed documentation on data sources, significant assumptions, or changes in assumptions for the cost estimate, according to GAO-08-554.
It said the cost estimate is not comprehensive because the Bureau did not include the potential cost to fingerprint temporary workers or clearly define some of the cost elements in the model.
The cost estimate also does not reflect updated information on address canvassing productivity that was identified during a practice run and that should result in a significant cost increase, GAO said.
It said the estimate is not credible because the Bureau did not perform sensitivity or uncertainty analyses, which would have helped quantify the risk and uncertainty associated with the cost model and provided a level of confidence for the estimate.
The Bureau has insufficient policies and procedures and inadequately trained staff for conducting high-quality cost estimation for the decennial census, according to the report.
It said the Bureau also does not have established cost estimation guidance and procedures in place or staff certified in cost estimation techniques.
While the Bureau is developing a new budget management tool called the Decennial Budget Integration Tool, which will support the cost estimation process, the Bureau will need to establish rigorous cost estimation policies and procedures and use skilled estimators to ensure that future cost estimates are reliable and of high quality, GAO said.
