Federal Manager's Daily Report

Most of the total relates to Medicare and Medicaid, unemployment insurance, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Paycheck Protection Program. Image: photo_gonzo/Shutterstock.com

Federal agencies estimated a total of $236 billion in improper payments for fiscal year 2023, a decrease of about $11 billion, but that “does not include some programs that agencies have determined are susceptible to significant improper payments” such as HHS’s Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, the GAO has said.

“Improper payments—those that should not have been made or were made in the incorrect amount—have consistently been a government-wide issue,” it said. Of the total for 2023, 74 percent were overpayments versus just 5 percent underpayments, with 2 percent “technically improper” for reasons such as missing documentation, while the rest is unknown.

It added that about 79 percent of the total relates to four programs: Medicare and Medicaid, run by HHS; unemployment insurance, run by Labor; the Earned Income Tax Credit, overseen by Treasury through its component IRS; and the pandemic-based Paycheck Protection Program run by SBA.

The latter two have been the focus of numerous prior reports from inspectors general as contributing to the spike in improper payments that began with the pandemic in 2020, rising that year by some $30 billion to $206 billion and then peaking in 2021 above $281 billion.

The Paycheck Protection Program loan guaranty program had the highest rate of improper payments, 49 percent, while another 15 programs had rates above 10 percent. Five programs, including unemployment insurance, reported substantial increases while seven reported substantial decreases.

GAO said that apart from not encompassing all programs, reliability issues with the data include “changes in estimation methodology” and “variability arising from the improper payment estimation process.”

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