The federal COLA count will be finalized with the figure for September, which is to be released in mid-October. Image: 3d imagination/Shutterstock.com
By: FEDweek StaffThree-fourths of the way through the count toward the January 2026 federal retirement COLA, the figure stands at 2.4 percent, following an increase in June of 0.4 percentage points in the inflation index used to set that COLA.
While monthly inflation figures vary, the count seems on track to equal or exceed 3 percent. Each of the last six months in the current cycle has been at least 0.2 percentage points and four have exceeded 0.3 percentage points. Only one of the nine in this cycle, for last November, has been negative, at -0.1 percentage points.
If the count finishes at or above 3 percent, FERS retirees who are eligible for COLAs (generally not until age 62, with some exceptions such a law enforcement) would receive 1 percentage point less. If it finishes between 2 and 3 percent, the applicable FERs adjustment will be a flat 2 percent.
In all cases, those retired under CSRS get the full amount, with no restriction by age. The same full amount is paid on Social Security benefits, with the difference that those increases are not prorated for those retired for less than a full year at the January payout, while COLAs under both FERS and CSRS are prorated in that case.
The count will be finalized with the figure for September, which is to be released in mid-October.
Social Security
Social Security COLAs, on the other hand—while calculated using the same CPI-W index—are not subject to reductions like those under FERS. Moreover, Social Security beneficiaries receive the full COLA even if they began collecting benefits mid-year, whereas federal retirees under both CSRS and FERS have their COLAs prorated in the first year of retirement based on the number of months they were retired prior to January.
FECA (Workers’ Compensation) COLAs
2025 FECA COLA: Beneficiaries received a 2.8% increase starting in April 2025, based on year-over-year change in December’s CPI-W.
2026 FECA projection: As of June 2025, the CPI-W shows a 2.23% increase over December 2024, suggesting a roughly 2.2% COLA—which will be finalized when the December 2025 CPI-W comes out in January 2026.
| Retirement System |
Conditions | Likely 2026 COLA |
|---|---|---|
| CSRS | No age limit; full CPI | ≈ 3%+ |
| FERS | Age 62+ (some exceptions); formula-based |
Likely 2%–3% |
| Social Security | All beneficiaries; full CPI; no proration |
≈ 3%+ |
| FECA | Permanent disability/ death benefits |
2.8% in April 2025; projected ~2.2% in 2026 |
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See also,
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