Raise Could Fly Under Radar Again

President Obama’s proposal for a 1.3 percent federal employee raise in January 2016, while slightly above the 1 percent raises granted in 2014 and 2015, might still be small enough to gain acceptance through inaction as did the two prior raises. Under federal pay law, if Congress has remained silent regarding a federal raise by the end of a calendar year, the White House recommendation for the succeeding January takes effect by default; that is how the increases of this year and last became law. A key first indicator will be the congressional budget plan for the upcoming fiscal year, likely to start with a House vote in April, that serves as an outline for later spending bills. The past two years, the House version made no mention of a raise, essentially an assumption that the White House’s recommendation would take effect and paving the way for that to happen. Employee organizations and some Democrats in Congress favor a 3.8 percent raise but could face a difficult decision. Formally offering that amount as an amendment to a budget measure could force Congress to take a stand on the raise; in such a vote figures smaller than 1.3 percent, potentially including zero, also likely would be put on the table as alternates.