Pay was somewhat less controlling of quit intentions than was the need for growth and respect. Image: Ariya J/Shutterstock.com
By: FEDweek StaffFollowing is an article from a recent MSPB publication focusing on trends in federal employee turnover and the reasons most likely to drive employees to quit their jobs.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a record-setting 47 million people in the U.S. voluntarily quit their jobs during 2021; a large number of resignations have continued into 2022. The Federal Government has also seen an increase in resignations. According to FedScope, the online Federal workforce data tool, 2.4 percent of permanent, full-time employees on the rolls in 2020 had voluntarily quit their jobs for reasons other than retirement. By the end of 2021, 3 percent had voluntarily quit. While this is a small percentage increase in absolute terms, it represents a statistically significant 26.6 percent year-over-year increase. Often described as “the Great Resignation,” the recent trend of Americans choosing to leave their employer has generated much scholarly inquiry as to why.
For instance, in February 2022, the Pew Research Center conducted a nationally representative panel study survey of 9,388 randomly selected U.S. adults. They asked people who quit their job in 2021 why they had done so. The main reasons cited were: (1) lack of opportunities for advancement, (2) feeling disrespected, and (3) dissatisfaction with pay. Additional research by Gloat Research Board and Inflection Poynt supported those findings. While this research had a private sector focus, we speculated that the same growth, respect, and pay drivers may also affect Federal employees’ quit intentions. Our 2021 Merit Principles Survey (MPS) asked Federal employees about the three drivers Pew identified and about respondents’ quit intentions. To estimate overall quit intentions for each respondent, we used their highest agreement level from among the three quit intentions listed.
MPS 2021 Questions
Quit Drivers
My organization provides employees with opportunities for growth and development.
I am treated with respect at work.
My organization pays employees fairly.
Quit Intentions
I plan to move to a different organization or agency.
I plan to move to a different occupation or line of work.
I plan to resign from the Federal Government.
With 25,044 complete responses, we found that 12.2 percent of Federal respondents had very high quit intentions. We used machine learning and advanced analytics to examine how this percentage changed as respondents agreed or disagreed with how well their respective organizations paid them fairly, provided them with opportunities for growth and development, and treated them with respect at work. (Original article includes depiction of a decision tree).
Following one branch of the tree, we find that agreeing that they have growth and development opportunities cut employees’ high quit intentions almost in half (to 6.8 percent), while strongly disagreeing more than doubled these intentions (26.7 percent). Among these 26.7 percent, strongly disagreeing that they are treated with respect increased these intentions to 37.9 percent, while agreeing reduced intentions to 20.1 percent. Among these 20.1 percent, agreeing that their organization pays them fairly cut intentions to 15.9 percent, while strongly disagreeing increased intentions to 25.1 percent. The reader may explore other branches, but it becomes clear that strong quit intentions vary with how well or poorly the organization meets growth and development, respect, and pay fairness needs. Indeed, an organization’s strength in one area may compensate for weakness in another.
Another takeaway from this analysis is that pay was somewhat less controlling of quit intentions than was the need for growth and respect, as evidenced by pay appearing farther downstream in the model. Furthermore, among those who disagreed with the respect question, no further significant differences were found in quit intention whether a person agreed or disagreed with the pay question.
The period from 2020 to 2022 brought considerable employee movement between jobs, and the latest research suggests that employees’ need for growth, respect, and better pay may have driven some of this job exploration. Agencies concerned about retaining top talent may wish to take stock in how well training and development needs are being met and how respectfully the overall organizational culture treats employees—their most valuable resource.
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